It's not looking likely that the US will do anything when North Korea launches its long-range missile. I'm hoping Japan will have the cojones to pull the trigger, since we obviously won't, but there's doubt on that score, too: Japan knows that any move that even hints at its own remilitarization will galvanize a wave of historical anger against it from China, the Koreas, and any other Asian nation with a grievance dating back to World War II and before. Despite its robustness, Japan is in an economically and diplomatically precarious position; I'm sure the country is aware of the immediate consequences of a missile interception. This doesn't leave me much hope that Japan will do anything, and with both the US and Japan likely backing down, the situation is a lot like letting the class bully terrorize the students, despite there being several bigger, stronger teachers in the room.
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Marathon
12 years ago
2 comments:
Where the hell is South Korea in all of this?
John from Daejeon
John,
I imagine it's right where it always is: hoping that nobody starts a big fight on its doorstep. This attitude is understandable: SK has so much to lose if a conflict were to break out, or if the NK government were suddenly to collapse.
Personally, I think the conflict/collapse needs to happen sooner, not later, because it'll resolve so many issues, including the question of Chinese hegemony over the northern half of the peninsula. I'd like to see SK-style democracy overtake the entire peninsula, with China left nervous at the border, but I agree with Koreans who suspect that China might have other plans (cf. Tibet, saber-rattling over Taiwan, etc.).
This would explain, in part, China's friendliness with NK: it's not about being an ally so much as it's about prepping NK for a soft landing when the collapse finally occurs. China wants at least one finger in that pie.
Kevin
(Or if we're using collapse metaphors, maybe "pie" should be "soufflé.")
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