North Korea on the brink?

I've been following the spate of rumors-- some of them apparently old-- that North Korea's Dear Leader Kim Jong Il may be either very sick... or already dead for several years. Proponents of the second rumor claim that KJI's doubles have been filling in for him ever since he died years ago, which brings up the question of who's doing the actual ruling.

It's an interesting theory, but you'll pardon me if I remain cautiously skeptical. My own feeling is that, if a true power vacuum did indeed open at the highest level, we'd be hearing more noise and seeing more activity from North Korea's generals-- the guys most likely to step in if the government unexpectedly imploded.

While KJI may have a son or two already groomed for succession, I suspect that those sons may be too young to have much pull in an increasingly frail and teetering political infrastructure.

Most North Korea experts feel that, with the regime as tightly controlled as it's been since 1953, any significant tear in the governmental fabric would result in a catastrophic failure. It's a nightmare scenario for South Korea, which doesn't really want to deal with the chaos that might result from a North Korean collapse-- the grim possibility of war, the southward flood of NK refugees, the long-term attempt at economic stabilization of the peninsula, the likely involvement of China (which might use the collapse as cover for a land grab, sending in troops to help "stabilize" the region), etc. South Korea carried on a policy of appeasement under its previous three presidents; I have no idea whether the country is truly ready to face a major crisis to its north.

Of course, North Korea has pulled a rabbit out of its hat many times before; rumors of its impending doom are often greatly exaggerated. I guess we'll just have to sit back and wait.


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